拉加德总裁在2018年国际货币基金组织-民银行研讨会上的讲话
Speech by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at the 2018 IMF-PBC Conference
Belt and Road Initiative: Strategies to Deliver in the Next Phase
“一带一路”倡议：下一阶段实施的战略
Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director
国际货币基金组织总裁 克里斯蒂娜·拉加德
IMF-PBC Conference, Beijing
国际货币基金组织-民银行研讨会，北京
April 12, 2018
2018年4月12日
Introduction
引言
Governor Yi, Excellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning! Zao Shang Hao! Thank you for the kind introduction.
易行长，各位阁下，各位嘉宾，女士们、先生们——早上好(中文)!感谢您的热情介绍。
One year ago, here in Beijing, I spoke about the promise of the Belt and Road Initiative. It is quite appropriate that we are gathered again at the beginning of the spring season, just when flowers start to bloom, to see how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is developing.
一年前，就在北京，我曾谈到“一带一路”倡议的承诺和巨大潜力。初春时节，鲜花盛开，我们的再次齐聚一堂，共同见证“一带一路”倡议取得的进展。时机非常恰当。
This is what I would like to discuss with you today: first, the early indications of progress under the Belt and Road Initiative – the blossoms – and then, equally important, how to make sure this endeavor can fully deliver in bearing fruit.
而这也是我今天想与各位讨论的内容：首先，“一带一路”的成果已初现端倪，绽放出了花朵;其次，同等样重要的是，如何确保这一努力结出累累硕果。
Belt and Road Potential
“一带一路”的潜力
In 2013, when President Xi announced the Belt and Road Initiative, he described it as a platform for international cooperation. From promoting trade, to fostering financial inclusion, to facilitating people-to-people exchanges, this initiative seeks to bring the world closer together.
2013年，在习主席宣布“一带一路”倡议时，他将之形容成为一个开展国际合作的平台。从促进贸易到推动普惠金融，再到促进人与人的交流，这一倡议寻求拉近世界各地之间的距离。
One of the examples of how the Belt and Road can connect communities is through infrastructure investment.
“一带一路”将各群体相连的一个典型例子是基础设施投资。
We know that good infrastructure can help achieve more inclusive growth, attract more foreign direct investment, and create more jobs. A major project can transform the economic fortunes of a city or even an entire region.
我们知道，良好的基础设施有助于实现更具包容性的经济增长、吸引更多的外国直接投资并创造更多的就业机会。一个重大项目可以改变一个城市乃至整个地区的经济命运。
The Thailand-China high-speed railway is one example of infrastructure’s transformative impact. When completed, the new line will be the first of its kind in Thailand and could enhance the economy’s integration into regional supply chains.
泰中高铁就是一个的很好例子，展示了基础设施带来的变革性影响。一旦建成，这条新线路将成为泰国第一条高铁，并将促进该国融入本地区的供应链。
Another example is in Kazakhstan, where a recently constructed manufacturing development zone is already stimulating trade and linking previously isolated areas.
另一个例子是哈萨克斯坦。近期，该国建成了制造业开发区，这已开始促进之前闭塞的地区之间开展贸易和交流。
Given the more than 70 BRI participating countries, it is difficult to estimate precisely the overall investment needs. But they will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Clearly, there is apressing need for infrastructure and already there are signs of progress. In other words, blooms are starting to appear. But there is a concern that some investments – if not properly tended – could wither on the vine. So allow me to highlight two challenges facing the Belt and Road Initiative.
“一带一路”拥有70余个参与国，因此很难准确估计所需的总投资规模，但每年的投资需求将会达到几千亿美元。很明显，基础设施的需求十分迫切，且成果也初见端倪。换句话说，鲜花开始绽放。但也有人担心，一些投资如果管理不当，可能会中途失败。因此，我想重点谈一下“一带一路”倡议面临的两个挑战。
Addressing Challenges in the Next Phase of Belt and Road
应对“一带一路”下一阶段的挑战
The first challenge is ensuring that Belt and Road only travels where it is needed.
第一个挑战是，确保“一带一路”的项目仅在有需要的地方推进。
With any large-scale spending there is sometimes the temptation to take advantage of the project selection and bidding process. Experiences from across the globe show that there is always a risk of potentially failed projects and the misuse of funds. Even when the right project is picked, difficulties often arise during implementation.
由于涉及大规模的支出，人们有时会面临项目甄选和招标过程中的诱惑。全球经验显示，项目失败的风险和资金使用不当的情况总是存在的。即便是选择了正确的项目，在实施过程中也常会遇到困难。
If Chinese and other companies assist with construction overseas, they may face new political, legal, and environmental obstacles. Preparing for these situations, selecting projects that fill true infrastructure gaps, and implementing them in the most efficient way should be top priorities moving forward.
如果中国和其他国家的企业帮助在海外开展建设，那么它们可能会面临政治、法律和环境方面的新障碍。未来的首要工作，是为这些情况做好准备，选择那些能真正填补基础设施缺口的项目，并以最高效的方式予以实施。
This is related to the second challenge – focusing on sound fiscal policies.
这与第二个挑战有关——关注稳健的财政政策。
The Belt and Road Initiative can provide much-needed infrastructure financing to partner countries. However, these ventures can also lead to a problematic increase in debt, potentially limiting other spending as debt service rises, and creating balance of payment challenges.
“一带一路”倡议可以为伙伴国提供其亟需的基础设施融资。不过，这些项目也可能带来问题，导致债务水平上升。这可能会增加偿债成本，从而限制了其他方面的支出。其也可能带来国际收支方面的挑战。
In countries where public debt is already high, careful management of financing terms is critical. This will protect both China and partner governments from entering into agreements that will cause financial difficulties in the future. Fortunately, we know that China’s leadership is aware of these potential risks – as well as the proven strategies that can help address the challenges.
公共债务已然很高的国家，应该对融资条款进行谨慎管理。这将防止中国与其伙伴国政府签署那些未来将有可能引发财政困难的协议。幸运的是，我们知道中国领导人已经意识到了这些潜在风险。此外，一些策略已被证明能帮助应对这些挑战。
A good starting point is ensuring transparent decision-making. An overarching framework between the various agencies involved in the Belt and Road Initiative would help provide clarity to all stakeholders.A “one-stop shop” for the BRI could provide such a framework. The recently establishedInternational Development Cooperation Agency, which will be in charge of China’s foreign aid as well as the BRI, could potentially play this role.
一个好的起点是确保决策透明。在“一带一路”倡议内，各机构之间建立起一个总体框架，将帮助为所有利益相关方提供清晰的信息。为“一带一路”倡议建立一个“一站式服务”的机构，便可提供一个这样的框架。近期成立的、负责中国对外援助和“一带一路”工作的国家国际发展合作署，可能会发挥出这种作用。
Digital tools can help as well. In Kenya, for example, the government recently launched an e-procurement system that made the review process more efficient and accessible. Innovations like these can also help foster an open process and level playing field for project selection, which is essential for strong private sector participation.
数字工具也有所帮助。例如在肯尼亚，政府近期启动了一个电子采购系统，这使评估工作更加高效、更易展开。此类创新也有利于为项目选择建立公开的流程并营造公平的环境， 而这对鼓励私人部门密切参与至关重要。
For projects that have already been approved, dispute resolution systems can prevent small problems from turning into major complications. As projects are designed and implemented, meeting environmental standards can build trust within the community and allow investments to becomesustainable building blocks for growth. These policies can enable success under the Belt and Road Initiative.
对于已获批准的项目，建立争议解决机制将能防止小问题演变成为大麻烦。随着项目的规划和实施，满足环境标准可在各群体中建立信任，并使项目投资成为可持续增长的基石。这些政策能够确保“一带一路”倡议下的项目取得成功。
The IMF remains well-positioned to provide guidance in these areas, particularly by helping countries improve their overall public financial management. Through regular reviews of all IMF member economies – “surveillance” in IMF parlance – we offer policy advice to help countries maintain macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, including for scenarios such as stepped-up investment.
基金组织在这些领域经验丰富，随时准备着在这些方面给予指导，特别是在帮助各国全面改善公共财政管理问题上。通过对全体基金组织成员经济体开展定期评估(也就是基金组织所说的“经济监督”)，我们将提供政策建议，帮助各国维持宏观经济稳定和债务的可持续性，这也包括了投资不断增加的情况。
Through our capacity development, we assist our members, including China, in modernizing economic institutions, building human capital, and maintaining sound macroeconomic policies. While much of our focus is on the Belt and Road Initiative today, I am also pleased to announce the launch of the new China-IMF Capacity Development Center (CICDC). This center will soon begin offering a series of activities, including macro-financial training courses, to officials from many of our member countries, including China.
通过开展能力建设，我们将帮助包括中国在内的各成员国实现经济体制现代化，建设人力资本，维持稳健的宏观经济政策。虽然我们今天的讨论主要关注“一带一路”倡议，但我也很高兴地宣布新的中国-国际货币基金组织联合能力建设中心(CICDC)正式启动。该中心很快将开始为包括中国在内的各成员国官员提供一系列的培训活动，包括宏观金融培训课程。
Conclusion
结论
Let me conclude by looking to the promise of the season. 最后，让我来谈谈这个季节的承诺。
The steps taken today can help secure the expected gains from the Belt and Road Initiative and allow the buds we see to reach full bloom. Working together, we can ensure there is a good harvest for many years to come.
今天采取的措施，有助于保障“一带一路”倡议取得预想成果，让我们所看到的花蕾最终盛开。通过共同努力，我们可以确保在未来的许多年终将能收获累累硕果。
Thank you, and I wish you a successful conference.
谢谢，预祝会议圆满成功。
Xièxiè.
谢谢(中文)。
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