Far more controversial and complicated, surely, is the rest of “What Happened,” starting with Clinton’s arguments about the role of misogyny and sexism in the election. It’s hard to buy the idea that she suffered disproportionately from charges of untrustworthiness or inauthenticity simply because she was a woman. Her husband was considered so eely that the tabloids christened him “Slick Willy,” and plenty of male presidential candidates (Mitt Romney, JohnKerry) were regarded as catastrophically insincere. More persuasive is Clinton’s contention that presidential politics, especially compared to parliamentary politics, favors arena-filling showmanship rather than the quieter, detail-oriented realism she prefers. (How many times has Clinton been praised for being “a workhorse, not a show horse”?) And 2016 was nothing if not the year of the blusterer. One of the things that drove Clinton bonkers about Bernie Sanders was that he always managed to outdo her proposals with something larger and less feasible. “That left me to play the unenviable role,” she writes, “of spoilsport schoolmarm.” As her book’s title implies, Clinton has her own version of what happened in 2016, and she eventually forces readers to reckon with it. She seems at once the best and worst possible person to carry out this assessment. But here, at any rate, is her bottom line: Comey’s letter of Oct. 28, 2016, which notified Congress that he was reopening his investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server to conduct State Department business, effectively ended her candidacy. (She leans heavily on various analyses done by data maestro Nate Silver to make her case.) Combine that letter with the full-saturation media coverage Comey’s investigation had been getting all along, and then add to it Russian interference — fake news stories on social media, email hacks — and you have the perfect storm. Clinton also blames sexism, citing a 2014 Pew Research Center poll that showed just how few voters hoped to see a female president in their lifetime. She blames racism, too, which she considers inseparable from economic anxiety, because her courting of immigrants and voters of color might have given the impression that she put their economic interests before those of disenfranchised whites. She believes that voter suppression in swing states, made possible by a ruling by the Supreme Court in 2013, also made a difference. So did the ever-present animus toward her, which remains, she writes, something she doesn’t fully understand. It’s hard to say whether readers will buy these explanations. It’s possible that a more inspired candidate would have won the Electoral College, simple as that. Or that the Clinton brand was tarnished among black voters. Or that her campaign, despite its extensive networks and deep pockets, failed to detect that something on the ground was wrong. Or that she should have appeared in more rural areas. Or that she couldn’t find a better way to speak to the fears of the white working class — which she does admit, though she doesn’t think it cost her the election. We’ll be arguing about these questions for decades, surely. But one thing we know for certain: History conspired against Clinton. No non-incumbent Democrat has succeeded a two-term Democratic president since 1836, and 2016 was a year when voters were pining for change. Bigly. In spite of that — in spite of everything — Clinton still won the popular vote by almost 3 million. But it didn’t matter. What happened is, it wasn’t enough.

参考答案:     当然,更有争议、更复杂的,肯定是《发生了什么》中的其他部分,从克林顿讨论女性歧视和性别歧视在选举中发挥的作用这一部分开始。仅仅因为她是女人,就遭到了过多指责,说她不值得信赖、不真诚,这样的观点是让人难以信服的。她的丈夫就被认为过于圆滑,小报都管他叫“滑头威利”(Slick Willy),还有很多男性总统候选人(米特·罗姆尼[Mitt Romney]、约翰·凯利[John Kerry])都被视为极不真诚。
    更有说服力的是克林顿的一个观点,她认为总统政治,特别是与议会政治相比,更青睐舞台表演技艺,而不是她倾向的那种更安静、更细节化的现实主义。(克林顿多少次被誉为“一匹干活的马,不是用来表演马术的”?)而2016年堪称夸夸其谈者的一年。克林顿特别受不了伯尼·桑德斯的一点是:他总是想方设法提出比她的提议更宏大、但却更不可行的提议。她说:“这让我成了一个令人厌烦的角色,就像败兴、拘谨的女教师一样。”
    正如书名所暗示的,克林顿对于2016年发生的事情有着自己的版本。最终,她迫使读者直面这一点。要进行这项评估,她似乎是最佳人选,也是最差人选。不过,无论如何,她的基本观点是:2016年10月28日,科米致信通知国会,他正对克林顿使用私人电子邮件服务器处理国务院事务一事重新展开调查,这封信实质上终结了她的竞选。(为证明自己的观点,她大量引用了数据大师纳特·希尔弗[Nate Silver]所做的各种分析)。这封信,加上媒体对科米调查连篇累牍的报道,再加上俄罗斯的干预——社交媒体上的假新闻、黑客窃取电子邮件的行动——终于造就了这场完美风暴。
    克林顿还把败选归咎于性别歧视,她引用2014年皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的一项调查,其中指出,几乎没有多少选民寄望于在有生之年见证一位女总统上任。她还指责种族主义,认为它同经济焦虑息息相关。由于她努力争取移民和有色人种选民,这可能会让人觉得,她把这些人的经济利益置于被剥夺权利的白人之上。她认为,摇摆州那些因最高法院2013年的裁决而遭到压制的选民也可能对结果造成影响。此外还有一直以来针对她的那些敌意,她写道,她对此仍然并不完全理解。
    读者是否会接受这些解释还很难说。一个比她更有创意的候选人可能会赢得选举人投票,可能就这么简单。或者克林顿品牌的名声在黑人选民中已经遭到了玷污。或者她的竞选尽管拥有广泛的网络和雄厚的资金,却没有发现在基层出现了某种问题。或者她应该更多地出现在乡村地区。又或者她没有找到一个更好的方式来应对白人工人阶级的恐惧——她承认这一点,尽管她不认为是这个原因令她在选举中失败。
    这些问题肯定足以让我们讨论几十年。但我们确实知道这样一件事:历史在和克林顿作对。自从1836年以来,连任两届的民主党总统之后的民主党候选人均未能成功当选,而2016年是选民渴求改变的一年。很大的改变。
    尽管如此——尽管有这一切——克林顿仍然在普选中比对手多赢得了近300万张选票。但这不重要。不管发生了什么,这还不够。
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